Weekly Wrap

Thanksgiving 2001

Is there ever enough time in a day to get everything done? Some days I wish I could sit down and watch Oprah. Some days I wish I could spend the whole afternoon doing nothing but going through mail order catalogs. Some days I wish could read a romance novel start to finish without interruptions. Some days I wish I could spend the entire evening at the mall just hanging out with a friend. And then there are the days I wish I could write both a Thanksgiving article and a Market Wrap.

Not happenin'. Today we get the combo article. Be thankful.

Last year I think I was thankful for the Thanksgiving Day Sales. This year, I'm changing my tune; I'm just thankful we still have retail stores to be having sales. I'm also thankful we have airplanes in the sky. I'm thankful we have a President who has finally found his balls. And I'm thankful that we've all been given a chance to refinance our mortgages and get the lowest rates in three decades. With the recent tragedy added to a sliding economy (and a market that reflects the slide), it puts into perspective what we should be thankful for. Everyone's lives have changed.

So what market chatter can I write about that would even be relevant to discuss around the Thanksgiving Day table?

First of all, the general consensus amongst all my market friends is that we might be climbing out of this. Three months ago everyone thought the economic downturn was going to last well into next year, but after the events of September 11th, it has happened much much quicker. Companies closed up shop, laid off employees, and cut back on production before you could say, "Who's Osama Bin Laden?" September 11th brought our economy to a screeching halt.

On the flip side, we're pulling out of it a lot faster. Everyone is regrouping. Companies who would still be laying off employees, have done it and are moving on. Word on the Street is that things are getting greener for most corporations, and as early as now.

The market is thankful for this.

Just last month, we experienced record auto sales at a 7% increase. This was due mainly to the 0% financing. Also, retail and food service sales rose at a better than expected rate during the past quarter. Despite all the RIFf-ing (remember? RIF - Reduction In Force), consumers are continuing to spend. With each and every member of the Al-Qaida that is found dead (or missing), the public is beginning to open the pocketbook.

Tuesday's large decline notwithstanding, the Dow and the Nasdaq are back in bull-market territory, up 20% and 32%, respectively, from their Sept. 21 lows, while the S&P 500 has gained 18% over the same period. If there ever were a really long tunnel, a tunnel that got narrower as the day got shorter, we were in it. There was barely of pinhole of light at the other end, and it seemed miles away. This Thanksgiving, I'm feeling that our hand has made it through the opening. Now if I could just get my fat butt on out, we'd be laughing.

Hewlett-Packard (HWP) surprised many this past week when they posted their fourth-quarter earnings and they were better than what Wall Street expected... by more than double! (You do know that it is a woman running HWP don't you? Carly Fiorina.) HWP came in at 19 cents per share, when the Street only expected eight. Their stock rebounded 9% on Tuesday, losing 2% of it's ground on Wednesday. Though, like most companies continue to report, they don't expect a great year in 2002. Who needs great? We just need green. Stay tuned.
Home Depot (HD) was another rally-er (is this a word?) this past week. Their earnings report had investors jumping on rooftops enabling their stock to climb the proverbial ladder by 5%.

The clothing store my kids are thankful for, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) also reported earnings this past week that were in line with already lowered expectations. But you gotta love the quote coming out of ANF headquarters stating that they have "no idea what the Christmas shopping season will be like." Could we just get the Bin Laden dude and start shopping again? Either way, ANF passed Home Depot on the ladder and rose 11%.

Even Tiffany's (TIF) beat analysts' estimates for their third quarter earnings period. I don't need to tell you what people were buying and doing in this time of war. Their stock gained 6%.

From fingers to toes, athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker (Z) reported their third quarter profits rose 19%. Rings on her fingers, and bells on her toes... say has anybody seen my Sweet Gypsy Rose?

Speaking of, have you checked out the Chicks' answers in this week's Question of the Week, "What is something new that you are thankful for this year?" (We don't have a Chick named Gypsy nor Rose, but if you want Sweet... check out Chick Kristin's answer.) It is at this time of year that I have to stop, even if there is barely enough time, and be thankful for all my wonderful friends. From the old (my mother), to the new (I'll meet you tonight whomever you are), to the comfortable, to the foreign, to my housemate, to my kids, to relatives, to neighbors, to the car dealer, to... well, I'm thankful for all of them. It's been another year where, if it weren't for them, I'd have a lot more time... and who wants to spend a minute of any day without friends?

"Not I," said the hen.

Happy Thanksgiving,
Chick Karin