Unscrambling Monday's Egg
October 23, 2000 | In Focus Archive »
Sun
Microsystems
Putting
Sun Microsystems through the Chicks'
Dozen
by Chick
Karin
This
week we will run another Chick held company through the Chicks Dozen (and we
will continue to until we go through all the companies we own). Since Sun
Microsystems just reported their earnings late last week, it made sense to pull
them through today.
1. Buy What You Know - To tell you the truth, I didn't know anything about
Sun Microsystems until Chick Lynn's daughter Jessica started working for them.
Since I am very protective of my babysitters, I decided to research the company
she was moving to California for. Turns out, I was using Sun Microsystems
everyday and didn't even know it. Sun has developed computer languages called
Java and Jini that allow computers and computer chips to talk to each other. Not
only do we all use it, we are going to become dependent on it in the years to
come.
2. K.I.S.S. - Sun believes that shrink-wrapped software will be the days
of old, and everything you will need will be available through the network. Just
like your telephone service. You pay so much a month for Telephone Service, so
much Call-Waiting, so much for Caller ID, etc. Each of these is a software
program, but is available to you for a monthly fee. This is where Sun believes
the computer network is going and the languages that this new network will be
using are Java and Jini. These languages allow things to talk to each other. For
your computer to talk to your Palm Pilot, it needs a language. For your cell
phone to turn on your coffee pot, it needs a language. Java is the most widely
used language in the computer world, and also happens to be my favorite
beverage. See? You've heard of Java before, now it just takes on another
meaning. SUN also sells computer systems, high-speed microprocessors and a line
of high performance software. Can you say, "Touch 'em all, David
Justice?" (Thought I'd throw in a little World Series jargon.)
3. Industry - Eighteen years ago when CEO McNealy had his vision of the
internet, everyone thought he was crazy. Things talking to each other? I can
start my dishwasher from work?! My lawn sprinkling system will know if it is
going to rain today and turn itself off. Isn't that amazing? This industry of
developing the "Dot Com" home with other companies is going to grow
tons in the coming years.
4. Leader in it's Field - Sun's two competitors, IBM (IBM) and Hewlitt-Packard
(HP), can't compare when it comes to the numbers. Sun Microsystems is growing so
much faster and has had consistently higher margins. If you want, you can take a
look at the SmartMoney.com
Comparison Chart. It seems that each quarter, Sun manages to steal more and
more market share away from both IBM and HP. "We're coming to the view that
Sun's server business has the same lock on the server market as Microsoft does
on the desktop," wrote Merrill Lynch analyst Tom Kraemer. I'd pretty much
call that the leader.
5. Repeat Profitability - Obviously, this network will be used over and
over every day. I'm hoping that soon there will be a way to parent through my
Palm Pilot. Can't you just see it... on my daughter's alarm clock, at 7:00 a.m.,
my voice saying, "Taylor Honey, time to get up. I'm in New York today, I
miss you, but get your hiney out of bed Sweetie Pie. Your car pool is coming in
ten minutes." If she dares to hit the snooze button, I'll try Plan B and
pop into our video intercom system. "Hello and Good Morning everyone!!
Taylor just hit the snooze button so could you please go in and turn her lights
on??." Plan C... her CD player. There will be no escaping me. Me, over and
over. Now that's some repeat profit for Sun who will have infiltrated all of my
home appliances. I'm going to have so much fun.
Now on to the numbers portion of the Chicks Dozen. I found an excellent source
of data at www.marketguide.com.
Information available includes the Sun
Microsystems Income Statement and Sun
Microsystems Balance Sheet.
6. Gross Margins - (Revenue - Cost of Revenue) / Revenue
(5045-2615)
/ 5045
2430 / 5045 = .4816
.4816 x 100 = 48%
7. Net Margins - Net Income / Sales
510
/ 5045 = .1010
.1010 x 100 = 10%
8. Cash to Long Term Debt - Cash / LTD
2492
/ 2137= 1.2x
9. Flow Ratio - Current Assets- Cash/Current Liabilities- Short Term Debt
(7557
- 2492) / (4882 - 0)
(5065/ 4882) = 1.03
10. Increasing Growth - (Sales this quarter - Sales Last Quarter) / Sales
last quarter
(5045
- 5016 ) / 5016 = .00578
.006 x 100 = 0.6%
Everything looks pretty good for our Sun, but I did a little more digging (since
Sun is my company to follow for our investment club) and I noticed a blooper.
Look at Sun's numbers for the three quarters leading up to these latest numbers:
|
October
2000 |
June
2000 |
March
2000 |
December
1999 |
Gross Margins |
48% |
52% |
52% |
51% |
Net Margins |
10% |
12% |
14% |
13% |
Cash to Long Term Debt |
1.2x |
1.4x |
No debt |
No debt |
Flow Ratio |
1.03 |
.92 |
1.09 |
1.1 |
Sales Increase |
.6% |
25% |
13% |
13% |
Hmmm... perplexing isn't it? Every single Chick Dozen criteria moved in the
wrong direction this quarter. We are going to have to keep an eye on SUNW next
quarter to see if their numbers jump back in the right direction.
11. Strong Management and History - CEO Scott McNealy and some of his
Stanford buddies started Sun back in 1982. The name SUN derived from Stanford
University Network, so you know what they were doing in their spare time. In
just 18 years, the company has become the leading global supplier of network
computing solutions, with revenues of more than $14 billion.
You
know I would only track a company whose CEO loved hockey. CEO Scott McNealy
plays on five different amateur ice hockey teams. (I wonder if he could help the
Calgary Flames this year?) McNealy is also a visionary. His idea of the Dot Com
home is finally becoming reality.
Sun also believes that a company is about brainpower. One of Sun's Co-founders,
Bill Joy, is about the greatest web brain in the industry. McNealy has referred
to him as the "Edison of the Internet." If you are going to place a
value on a company, you have to put a price on the brains that work there. This
is more valuable than any property, or anything material -- the brain power. Sun
gets this, and is continuing to develop the brains of its employees. So, on
paper Sun is almost a billion-dollar company, but in reality it's worth much,
much more.
12. Buy On Sale
52 Week High |
129.31 |
52 Week Low |
43.78 |
Sale Price |
86.54 |
| Closed on
10/20/00 |
118.69 |
That's it for this week's Chicks Dozen. Now go enjoy the World Series!! (If you
are not a baseball fan, it's the season premiere of Ally McBeal tonight!)
*All numbers in millions except for Chick Dozen #12 stock price.
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