Unscrambling Monday's Egg
December 18, 2000 | In Focus Archive »
Unscrambling
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX)
Putting
Starbucks through the Chicks'
Dozen
by Chick Cheryl
1. Buy What You Know
I defy any of you to tell me you haven't
at least tried this famous cup of joe! On a recent Chick trip to New York, I can't
tell you how many blocks we trudged, passing several other coffee houses along
the way, looking for our favorite brew. Seattle-based Starbucks can now be found
in airports, attached to Barnes & Noble stores, university campuses, even in
the frozen food aisle at our local grocery stores! Last year, Starbucks opened
121 new stores outside of its previous stronghold in North America and the
United Kingdom. Now you can swig a cup on your next visit to China, Malaysia,
South Korea, New Zealand and even Kuwait (sorry gulf war vets... you were a
little early!)
2. Keep It Simple Sistah (KISS)
The toughest thing about Starbucks is probably trying to figure out what to
order! Their menu is vast and, granted, their cup size names may be a bit
confusing, but don't you feel oh-so transcontinental when you vascillate between
a grande and a venti mocha?
Primarily,Starbucks sells coffee and tea products, pastries and other food
items, coffee related accessories and equipment (I've also bought a few great
gifts there!). Through joint ventures, it also produces and sells bottled
Frappuccino and a line of premium ice creams (their awesome!).
Although you'll see a Starbucks in a variety of locales (from a supermarket
foyer to a suburban retail center), its main focus is to have stores that are
convenient to pedestrian street traffic with high visibility. (thus you don't
see many at your local mall)
If you're curious as to how those retail stores bring in their money by
product, here's the breakdown... (fiscal '99 sales figures)
69%.....those yummy handcrafted beverages
15%.....food items
10%.....whole bean coffees
6%.....coffee-making equipment and accessories
3. Industry
Their industry is Food Processing and their sector is Consumer/Non-cyclical.
I'd say they're non-cyclical, I drink coffee, rain or shine, 365 days a year! As
a consumer, I really can't think of anything that directly competes with
Starbucks. Of course, there are plenty of companies in the Food Processing
industry, but none in the coffee niche as well known across the country as
Starbucks. I think they may even give Folger's and Maxwell House a run for their
money...on a recent family vacation in Palm Springs, my brother (flying out from
Arkansas) requested I go to Costco (a club store like Sam's) and pick up a 2
pound bag of Starbucks whole beans. He just couldn't go the week without it!
Thanks to a long term licensing agreement with Kraft foods, as of fiscal year
1999, Starbucks whole bean and ground coffees could be found in 15 states and
approximately 8500 grocery, warehouse club and mass merchandise stores. (Kraft
handles the distribution, marketing, advertising and promotions). It is expected
to have national distribution by the end of this year.
4. Leader In Its Field
My girlfriend called me the other day to get together. "What do you
want to do", I asked? "I don't know, meet for a Starbucks or
something". That is huge! Do we no longer say meet for a cup of coffee?
Slowly, it seems, Starbucks and coffee are becoming synonymous. Just ask Kleenex
and Xerox the value of this kind of brand recognition.
The Company's self-proclaimed objective is "to establish Starbucks as
the most recognized and respected brand in the world." Oh how I love a
company with lofty goals! (Remember Tim Koogle's goal for Yahoo is for it to be
the preeminent media company of the 21st century.)
Their strategy makes good Chick sense. They want to sell the finest quality
coffee and related products, provide superior customer service, creating strong
customer loyalty. They plan to expand its retail business to increase its market
share in existing markets, then open stores in new markets where they feel they
can be the leading specialty coffee retailer.
5. Repeat Profitability
You better believe it! We're not talking car buying here, its coffee! Some
people can't even get out of bed without smelling the aroma of a freshly brewed
pot. As for our family, we can't make it home from church with out stopping to
buy a couple mochas to go...the real beauty? We have 4 retail outlets to chose
from, depending on which shop has the shortest line!
Note: The following equations used figures from the quarterly statements
(7/00) found at www.marketguide.com.
More recent earnings have been announced, but as of yet, the figures are
unavailable.
5. Gross Margin: 23%
(Sales - Cost of
Goods Sold) / Sales
(555.5 - 426.6) /
555.5
128.9 / 555.5 = .232
.232 x 100 = 23%
6. Net Margin: 6.3%
Net Income/Sales
34.9 / 555.5 = .0628
.0628 x 100 = 6.3%
7. Cash vs. Long Term Debt: 19x
Cash* / Long Term Debt
123.6 / 6.5 = 19.0x
8. Flow Ratio: .98
(Current Assets -
Cash*) / Current Liabilities - Short Term Debt
(416.1 - 123.6) /
(299.9 - 0) =
292.5 / 299.9 = .975
9. Increasing Growth
(most recent
quarter sales - last quarter sales) / last quarter
sales = X
X x 100 = %
Sales from Q 7/00 =
555.5
Sales from Q 4/00 =
504.7
555.5- - 504.7 = 50.8
50.8 / 504.7 = .10
Revenue has increased 10% from the quarter before and 31% from
the year before. They announced earnings a few weeks ago, but typically, those
new numbers are not yet available. They did, however, meet anyalyst
expectations.
In the long term, management foresees operating, get this, 20,000 stores
world-wide!! Considering they currently have around 3,000 in operation, that is
quite a goal! Such lofty aspirations are well received from stockholders as long
as that growth comes slow and steady, carefully controlling debt. As you can see
from the numbers above, debt has not been much of a problem for this cash-laden
company!
9. Management and Operating History
Starbucks Corporation (in its current form) has been led by the visionary
leadership of Howard Shultz (age 46...I like to know these things) since its
inception in 1985 (it really started perculating coffee in 1971). He served as
the Chairman, CEO and President from 1985 to 1994! 2nd in charge is Orin Smith.
serving as COO and President since 1994. In April of this year, Smith dropped
the title COO (but not the responsibilities) to become Chief Executive Officer.
Howard Shultz is now the "chief global strategist"...hmmm, I wonder if
he thought of that title himself!
Okay, so that's management in a nutshell, let me brief you on a little history.
Last year, SBUX majorly faltered...their stock dropped 28% in one day...why?
They got caught up in the internet craze like the rest of America and announced
some sort of "internet initiative". Sound vague? Wall Street thought
so! People feared the coffee company was veering off its garden path. In a true
test of management, the company scrapped its plans earlier this year, and been
the better for it. In fact, in last week's earnings announcement they also
revealed that they were going to post a $58.8 million dollar non-cash charge to
write down most of its losses in its dot-com investments. These include:
Living.com, Kosmo.com, Cooking.com and Talk City. Although this charge offsets
most of its profits... investors have seen this as a positive sign as management
returns to its original focus.
10. Buy on Sale
Current Stock Price (as of 12/08/00) = 46.875
52 wk hi = 50.81
52 wk lo = 23.12
52 wk avge = 36.965
Yes, this premium coffee has a premium price for its stock. I bought it for
my personal portfolio in October of 99 (1 year ago) at 24. I felt that it was a
good company with a big vision, that had been unduly slammed by the market for
its misstep. I thought of selling not too long ago as it seemed to hover in the
low 40's. Lately, its broken out, rising to the numbers in the high 40's. I'm
going to hang on. Shultz is a visionary
and has narrowed his focus: he wants to continue to brew a mean cup of coffee
and get as many people on earth to sip it as he can! 
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